Where the market is wrong on FBC Melgar v Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar meet Alianza Lima in the Primera División clausura - 6 at Estadio de la UNSA, Arequipa.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 65%. Attacking output favors FBC Melgar on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 43%. Draw no bet leans Alianza Lima at 54%; double chance reads FBC Melgar or draw 63%, Alianza Lima or draw 69%.
FBC Melgar arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Alianza Lima, W 3-0 @ Club Deportivo Los Chankas, L 2-4 v FC Cajamarca, D 0-0 @ UCV Moquegua.
Alianza Lima are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ FBC Melgar, W 1-0 v UTC Cajamarca, D 1-1 @ Sport Boys, W 3-1 v Alianza Atletico.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FBC Melgar 1-1 Alianza Lima.
The market prices FBC at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Alianza Lima: a 12.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
