Where the market is wrong on Sport Boys v ADT
Sport Boys meet ADT in the Primera División clausura - 2 at Estadio Miguel Grau, Callao. The model makes Sport Boys the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% SPO, 32% draw, 34% ADT.
The baseline ratings are close, 1504 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 45%. Attacking output favors ADT on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Sport Boys at 50%; double chance reads Sport Boys or draw 66%, ADT or draw 66%.
Sport Boys arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v ADT, L 0-1 @ Club Deportivo Los Chankas, W 1-0 v Comerciantes, W 3-0 v Academia Cantolao.
ADT are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Sport Boys, L 1-2 v Universitario, W 3-2 @ Cienciano, L 0-1 @ Sport Huancayo.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sport Boys 2-0 ADT.
The market prices SPO at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on ADT: a 12.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
