Where the market is wrong on Aarhus v Odense
Aarhus meet Odense in the Superliga regular season - 4 at Vejlby Stadion, Aarhus.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 48%. Attacking output favors Aarhus on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 64%. Draw no bet leans Aarhus at 55%; double chance reads Aarhus or draw 68%, Odense or draw 61%.
Aarhus arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Odense, L 1-3 @ Benfica, L 1-2 @ Viborg, L 0-4 @ Sabah FA.
Odense are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ FC Fredericia, D 2-2 @ Aarhus, L 1-2 v AC Horsens, L 0-1 @ Silkeborg.
Aarhus hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aarhus 2-2 Odense.
The market prices AAR at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Odense: a 9.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
