Derry City v Tolka Rovers: the model read
Derry City meet Tolka Rovers in the FAI Cup round of 32 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. The model makes Derry City the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% DER, 30% draw, 35% TOL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 50%. Attacking output favors Tolka Rovers on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Derry City at 50%; double chance reads Derry City or draw 65%, Tolka Rovers or draw 65%.
Derry City arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ HNK Rijeka, W 3-0 v Tolka Rovers, L 1-2 v CSKA Sofia, L 2-3 @ CSKA Sofia.
Tolka Rovers are steady: 2W-0D-2L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Derry City, W 3-0 @ Fairview Rangers, L 0-2 @ Galway United, W 3-1 v Janesboro.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
