Where the market is wrong on Philippines v Myanmar
Philippines meet Myanmar in the ASEAN Championship group stage - 2 at New Clark City Athletics Stadium, Capas. The model makes Philippines the most likely outcome at 50%, with the full read 50% PHI, 26% draw, 24% MYA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Philippines, 60% against 43%. Attacking output favors Philippines on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans Philippines at 68%; double chance reads Philippines or draw 76%, Myanmar or draw 50%.
Philippines arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 16 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Myanmar, W 5-1 v Guam, D 1-1 @ Tajikistan, W 2-0 @ Maldives.
Myanmar are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 10 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Malaysia, L 0-4 @ Vietnam, L 1-5 @ Philippines, W 6-1 v Guam.
The market prices PHI at 71% implied. Our number sits apart on Myanmar: a 12.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output