Gremio v Bolívar

Gremio meet Bolívar in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana round of 32. The model makes Bolívar the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% GRE, 30% draw, 36% BOL.

The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 57%. Attacking output favors Bolívar on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Bolívar at 52%; double chance reads Gremio or draw 64%, Bolívar or draw 66%.

Gremio arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Fluminense, L 2-3 @ Bolívar, L 1-2 @ Mirassol, W 3-1 v Cruzeiro.

Bolívar are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Real Potosí, W 3-2 v Gremio, W 4-0 v Guabirá, D 1-1 @ The Strongest.

Bolívar hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bolívar 3-2 Gremio.

The market prices GRE at 69% implied. Our number sits apart on Bolívar: a 25.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.