Erbil secured a 3-1 victory over Baghdad, a result dictated by a clinical second-half performance that contrasted sharply with a relatively even opening hour. The Lemeister model had projected a home win with 58 per cent probability, forecasting a 3-0 scoreline, and while the final margin was narrowed by a late Baghdad goal, the underlying thrust of the match aligned with that pre-match read. The victory came on the final day of the regular season, giving Erbil a rousing conclusion to their campaign.
The deadlock was broken in the 62nd minute when J. Govand found the net for Erbil. The goal served as the catalyst, and within four minutes, C. John doubled the lead from open play. John struck again in the 80th minute to complete his second goal of the afternoon, effectively securing the win. Baghdad replied two minutes later through J. Kareem, but the damage had been done. All four goals were standard open-play finishes, with no assists recorded, reflecting individual finishing rather than crafted combinations.
The statistical profile of the match remains absent from the available data, offering no direct measurement of possession, shots, expected goals, or passing accuracy. Consequently, the narrative must focus on the timing and sequence of the goals and the match ratings provided. C. John, with two goals, emerged as the decisive attacking force. J. Govand’s opener was equally pivotal, breaking the resistance just past the hour mark. J. Kareem’s consolation for Baghdad showed individual persistence but came after the contest was effectively decided.
The absence of any cards suggests a disciplined encounter, and with no substitutions recorded, both sides relied on their starting personnel throughout. Erbil’s ability to score three times in an 18-minute burst underlined a period of sustained pressure or ruthlessness in transition, while Baghdad’s single reply was insufficient to alter the outcome. The pattern of play strongly indicates that Erbil were the more efficient side in front of goal, even if the overall balance of territory and chances cannot be verified.
This result carries clear implications in the Iraqi League as the regular season concludes. For Erbil, finishing the campaign with a home victory reinforces a strong final standing. The win, taken alongside the Lemeister model’s projection, confirms they were the deserved favourites. Baghdad, conversely, end the season on a losing note, their late strike offering little more than a statistical footnote. The three-point swing solidifies Erbil’s position in the final table, while Baghdad must reflect on a match that slipped away in a concentrated spell of finishing. With the season now over, the focus turns to what each side can build upon for the next campaign, with Erbil clearly having momentum on their side.
