Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Pasto: the model read
Deportes Tolima meet Deportivo Pasto in the Primera A apertura - quarter-finals at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibague. The model makes Deportes Tolima the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% DEP, 31% draw, 30% DEP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 50%. Attacking output favors Deportes Tolima on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans Deportes Tolima at 57%; double chance reads Deportes Tolima or draw 70%, Deportivo Pasto or draw 61%.
Deportes Tolima arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Quindio, D 0-0 @ Universitario, L 1-3 @ Atletico Nacional, L 0-3 @ Coquimbo Unido.
Deportivo Pasto are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Bogota FC, L 0-2 v Deportes Tolima, L 0-1 @ Deportes Tolima, L 3-4 @ Junior.
Deportes Tolima hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Deportivo Pasto 0-2 Deportes Tolima.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
