Lokomotiv Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia finished level at 1-1 after 120 minutes in the Cup Final at the National Stadium Vasil Levski, a result that broadly reflected the data from the match. The statistics show an even contest with the Lemeister model having given Lokomotiv Plovdiv a narrow 36% chance of winning in normal time, a projection that proved close to the actual outcome. The draw was a fair reflection of the balance of play, with neither side able to force a decisive advantage over the duration of the match.
The opening goal arrived in the 11th minute when L. Godoy scored for CSKA Sofia, with J. Eto'o providing the assist. The strike gave CSKA an early lead and set the tone for a disciplined defensive display from the Sofia side. The score remained 1-0 for the remainder of the first half, with CSKA controlling the tempo and limiting Lokomotiv Plovdiv's opportunities. The early goal meant Lokomotiv had to chase the game, a task they managed effectively after the interval.
The equaliser came two minutes into the second half, with Lucas Ryan scoring for Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the 47th minute, assisted by P. Umarbaev. The quick response after the restart shifted the momentum back towards Lokomotiv, who began to assert more control in midfield. Possession statistics remained relatively even throughout, but the pattern of play suggested Lokomotiv had the better of the territorial exchanges after the equaliser, though without creating a clear dominance in shots or expected goals.
Discipline became a significant factor in the match. Lokomotiv Plovdiv collected six yellow cards compared to CSKA Sofia's two. E. Ali, C. Itu, A. Chindris, A. Cova, Lucas Ryan and M. Atanasov all went into the book for Lokomotiv, with the cards spread across the second half and extra time. CSKA Sofia's cautions were shown to M. Brahimi and T. Ivanov. The booking count indicates a physical and committed approach from both sides, but particularly from Lokomotiv, who were forced to defend diligently to keep CSKA at bay. Lokomotiv made six substitutions to CSKA's two, suggesting a need to manage fatigue and maintain energy levels as the match wore on.
The match progressed into extra time without further goals, and the statistics from the regulation period likely showed a narrow advantage in shots and expected goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, consistent with their dominance in possession and territorial play after the equaliser. However, CSKA's defensive organisation and the early goal meant they always carried a threat on the counter. The lack of a decisive goal in extra time underlined the parity between the two sides.
The result means Lokomotiv Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia could not be separated after 120 minutes, with the Cup Final going to a penalty shootout. For Lokomotiv Plovdiv, the draw extended their unbeaten run in cup competition but leaves the final outcome uncertain. CSKA Sofia will take confidence from their performance, having taken the lead and defended stoutly against a Lokomotiv side that needed to come from behind. The match confirmed the narrow margins between the two teams as predicted by the Lemeister model, with the pre-match probabilities having indicated a slight lean towards Lokomotiv but a significant chance of a draw. The final result leaves both sides with something to build on, though the trophy will ultimately be decided from the spot.
