Šiauliai overturned a one-goal deficit in the final minutes of their Cup Round of 16 tie against Ataka Vilnius, winning 2-1 at M. Birziskos stadionas. The visitors' expected goals projection, combined with their late surge, told the story of a contest that was finely balanced for long periods but ultimately swung decisively in the away side's favour. The Lemeister model had given Ataka Vilnius a 43 per cent chance of victory, but the reality of the match saw that forecast overturned.
The scoring began in the 38th minute, when Ataka Vilnius took the lead through P. Srebalius. His goal, a normal strike without an assist listed, put the home side ahead against the run of the underlying numbers. Srebalius had earlier been booked in the 10th minute, a yellow card that reflected an aggressive start from the home side. E. Gerasimovas followed him into the referee's book in the 19th minute, meaning Ataka Vilnius had two players already cautioned before the half-hour mark. Despite that disciplinary pressure, they held their advantage through the interval and into the latter stages of the second half.
The match's decisive phase arrived in the final ten minutes. With the home side seemingly in control, Šiauliai equalised in the 87th minute through D. Naah, whose unassisted goal levelled the scores. Just three minutes later, deep into stoppage time, U. Vaitiekaitis completed the turnaround with the winner. Both goals came from open play, with no credited assists, highlighting a period of pressure that Šiauliai were able to convert into tangible reward. The timing of the strikes meant Ataka Vilnius had no time to respond.
The statistical profile of the match underscores how the result was earned. While the data for possession and shots is not available from the structured record, the card count provides a clear indicator of the match's competitive edge. There were six yellow cards in total, three for each side, with four of those shown in the final ten minutes of normal time. D. Dovydaitis, R. Batalha and M. Elamrani were all cautioned in that frantic closing period, alongside E. Cerniavskij. The disciplinary picture suggests a high-stakes conclusion where both teams were pushing hard.
In terms of individual contributions, the named players carried the decisive actions. Srebalius scored the opening goal but also collected an early yellow card, a mixed personal return. Naah and Vaitiekaitis will take the headlines for their late intervention, with Vaitiekaitis's strike proving the winner. The absence of assists on any of the three goals points to solo efforts or quick transitions rather than sustained build-up play. The fact that Šiauliai used five substitutes to Ataka Vilnius's three may have contributed to their ability to maintain energy for the late push.
The outcome means Šiauliai advance to the quarter-finals of the competition, while Ataka Vilnius exit at the Round of 16 stage. For a tie that the Lemeister model saw as leaning slightly in favour of the home side, the result represents a clear upset in terms of the final scoreline. The visitors' ability to find two goals in the final three minutes of regulation time transformed the tie and demonstrated a resilience that the data alone could not fully capture. Ataka Vilnius will reflect on a strong first hour that was undone by a lack of control in the closing stages.
