Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel Aviv: the model read
Hapoel Beer Sheva meet Maccabi Tel Aviv in the State Cup final at Teddy Stadium, Jerusalem. The model makes Maccabi Tel Aviv the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 32% HAP, 28% draw, 41% MAC.
The baseline ratings are close, 1589 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 61% against 68%. Attacking output favors Maccabi Tel Aviv on expected goals, 2.1 to 2.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 79%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans Maccabi Tel Aviv at 56%; double chance reads Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw 59%, Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw 68%.
Hapoel Beer Sheva arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Vikingur Reykjavik, L 1-2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik, L 1-3 v Maccabi Tel Aviv, L 1-3 @ Legia Warszawa.
Maccabi Tel Aviv are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ Sheriff Tiraspol, W 3-1 @ Hapoel Beer Sheva, L 0-1 @ IMT Novi Beograd, W 1-0 v Alashkert.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-3 Maccabi Tel Aviv.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
