Progreso v Penarol: the model read
Progreso meet Penarol in the Primera División - Apertura apertura - 10 at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo. The model makes Penarol the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 27% PRO, 32% draw, 41% PEN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Penarol, 50% against 30%. Attacking output favors Penarol on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 30%. Draw no bet leans Penarol at 60%; double chance reads Progreso or draw 59%, Penarol or draw 73%.
Progreso arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Deportivo Maldonado, L 0-2 @ Wanderers, L 1-2 v Albion FC, W 2-1 @ Danubio.
Penarol are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Boston River, D 1-1 @ Racing Montevideo, W 1-0 @ Cerro, L 0-1 v Central Espanol.
Penarol hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Progreso 0-2 Penarol.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
