Spartak Nalchik v Rubin Yalta

Spartak Nalchik meet Rubin Yalta in the Second League - Group 1 group 1 - 16. The model makes Spartak Nalchik the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% SPA, 32% draw, 28% RUB.

The baseline ratings are close, 1577 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Spartak Nalchik, 63% against 50%. Attacking output favors Rubin Yalta on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Spartak Nalchik at 58%; double chance reads Spartak Nalchik or draw 72%, Rubin Yalta or draw 60%.

Spartak Nalchik arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Rubin Yalta, W 3-2 v Sevastopol, W 3-0 v Lugansk, D 1-1 @ Rostov II.

Rubin Yalta are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Spartak Nalchik, D 2-2 @ Druzhba, L 1-2 v Nart Cherkessk, L 1-2 @ Izberbash.

Rubin Yalta hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Spartak Nalchik 1-1 Rubin Yalta.

The market prices SPA at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.