Meizhou Kejia took an early lead but were ultimately overpowered by Changchun Yatai, who claimed a 3-1 victory at the Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre. The result broadly aligned with the Lemeister model, which had favoured the away side with a 41 per cent win probability and projected a 2-1 scoreline. The final margin of two goals reflected Changchun's superior control of the game's key moments, even if the statistical breakdown remains limited by the absence of detailed shot and possession data. The model's read of a narrow away win proved conservative given the eventual dominance, though the one-goal projection was close to the actual outcome.
The match began encouragingly for the hosts. In the 11th minute, V. Triboulet opened the scoring with a finish created by H. Sakhi, giving Meizhou Kejia an early platform. Triboulet's goal represented a bright start for a side that, on paper, were the underdogs. However, the lead lasted only nine minutes. In the 20th minute, an own goal by Yu Wai-Lim levelled the contest, a frustrating blow for Meizhou Kejia after their promising beginning. The own goal shifted the momentum decisively, and Changchun Yatai capitalised fully before half-time.
The visitors took the lead in the 38th minute through Tan Long, who was set up by O. Omoijuanfo. That assist was the first of two on the afternoon for Omoijuanfo, marking him as a central figure in Changchun's attacking play. The 2-1 scoreline at the interval was a fair reflection of the balance of play, with Changchun having regained their composure after the early setback and asserting their quality. The timing of the second goal, just before the break, was particularly damaging for Meizhou, as it denied them the chance to regroup and altered the tactical shape for the second half.
The second half saw Changchun Yatai consolidate their position. The decisive moment arrived in the 73rd minute when J. Salazar scored, again from an O. Omoijuanfo assist, to make it 3-1. That goal effectively ended the contest, giving the visitors a comfortable cushion. Meizhou Kejia, who had made four substitutions, were unable to find a response, while Changchun used five changes to manage the game to its conclusion. The match passed without any disciplinary action, with no cards issued by the officials, suggesting a contest played largely within the rules and without the disruption of stoppages that might have favoured a chasing home side.
With no detailed match statistics or player ratings available in the dataset, the narrative is built entirely around the goal timings and the identity of the scorers and assist providers. The disciplined performance from Changchun Yatai in avoiding cards while scoring three times speaks to their efficient approach. O. Omoijuanfo's two assists were the most impactful individual contributions, as he directly created two of the three goals, a return that would likely reflect strongly in any player rating system. Triboulet's early goal was a bright spot for the home side that ultimately proved insufficient, and his contribution, alongside Sakhi's assist, represented Meizhou's only sustained attacking threat of the afternoon. The own goal from Yu Wai-Lim was a cruel turning point, but Changchun's response through Tan Long and Salazar demonstrated their depth in attack.
In the context of the League One regular season, this was a significant result for Changchun Yatai. They arrived as the Lemeister model's narrow favourites and delivered a performance that matched that billing, taking three points away from home against a Meizhou Kejia side that competed well in stretches but could not sustain their early intensity. For Meizhou, the loss extends a difficult period and leaves them searching for consistency, while Changchun will feel confident in their attacking rhythm, particularly the link play involving O. Omoijuanfo and his strike partners. The result keeps Changchun in touch with the upper reaches of the table, while Meizhou face the challenge of reversing a trend that has seen them concede three goals for the second time in recent weeks.
