Where the market is wrong on Edgeworth Eagles v Hamilton Olympic
Edgeworth Eagles meet Hamilton Olympic in the Northern NSW NPL regular season - 20 at Jack McLaughlan Oval, Newcastle. The model makes Edgeworth Eagles the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% EDG, 27% draw, 33% HAM.
Edgeworth Eagles rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1577 to 1431. Recent form leans Edgeworth Eagles, 61% against 40%. Attacking output favors Edgeworth Eagles on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 83%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans Edgeworth Eagles at 55%; double chance reads Edgeworth Eagles or draw 67%, Hamilton Olympic or draw 60%.
Edgeworth Eagles arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Hamilton Olympic, W 2-1 v Kahibah, W 3-2 v Adamstown Rosebuds, W 3-2 v Lambton Jaffas.
Hamilton Olympic are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 13 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Edgeworth Eagles, W 5-2 v Belmont Swansea, L 1-2 @ Broadmeadow Magic, W 7-1 v Charlestown City Blues.
The market prices EDG at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Hamilton Olympic: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
