Where the market is wrong on Athletic Club v Sport Recife
Athletic Club meet Sport Recife in the Serie B regular season - 31 at Estadio Joaquim Portugal, Sao Joao del-Rei.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 48%. Attacking output favors Sport Recife on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Athletic Club arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Sport Recife, D 2-2 @ Fortaleza EC, D 1-1 v Botafogo SP, W 2-0 @ Juventude.
Sport Recife are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Athletic Club, L 1-3 @ Nautico Recife, W 2-1 v Juventude, L 1-2 @ CRB.
The market prices ATH at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Sport Recife: a 5.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 64 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
