Where the market is wrong on Operario-PR v Vila Nova
Operario-PR meet Vila Nova in the Serie B regular season - 24 at Estádio Germano Krüger, Ponta Grossa.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Vila Nova, 57% against 48%. Attacking output favors Operario-PR on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Vila Nova at 58%; double chance reads Operario-PR or draw 59%, Vila Nova or draw 71%.
Operario-PR arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Vila Nova, L 0-1 @ Cuiaba, L 1-2 v Avai, L 1-3 v São Bernardo.
Vila Nova are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Operario-PR, W 6-0 v Ponte Preta, W 2-0 @ Atletico Goianiense, L 0-1 v Sport Recife.
Vila Nova hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Operario-PR 0-0 Vila Nova.
The market prices OPE at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Vila Nova: a 11.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
