Where the market is wrong on Elva v FC Tallinn
Elva meet FC Tallinn in the Esiliiga A regular season - 30 at Nike Arena, Elva.
Elva rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1456. Recent form leans Elva, 68% against 42%. Attacking output favors Elva on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.2 per match.
Elva arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Flora II, L 0-5 @ Viimsi, W 1-0 v Nõmme Kalju II, W 1-0 @ Nõmme United II.
FC Tallinn are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 v FCI Levadia II, W 2-1 @ Viimsi, L 0-2 v Nõmme Kalju II, L 1-2 @ FCI Levadia II.
Elva hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Tallinn 0-3 Elva.
The market prices ELV at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
