Libertad secured a 2-0 victory over Tecnico Universitario at the Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, a result the Lemeister model had given only a 32 per cent probability, having rated a draw as the most likely outcome. The final scoreline was ultimately decided by two second-half goals, but the underlying data suggests the win was built on superior territorial control in dangerous areas rather than overall possession.
The match remained goalless until the 72nd minute, when a goal classified as a normal goal put Libertad ahead. The scorer was not listed in the data, but the breakthrough shifted the momentum definitively. H. Batalla then doubled the lead in the 90th minute, with E. Patta credited with the assist. Tecnico Universitario had been the more accurate passer of the ball, completing 300 of 393 passes at a 76 per cent rate compared to Libertad's 239 of 331 at 72 per cent, but they were unable to translate that possession advantage into clear-cut chances.
Tecnico Universitario managed 12 total shots to Libertad's 15, but the distribution of those attempts tells a clear story of the match. Libertad generated 11 shots from inside the box against only four from their opponents, while the visitors attempted eight shots from outside the area. This disparity is reflected in the expected goals data, which gave Libertad a 1.33 xG against Tecnico Universitario's 0.52. The home side's block count of five, compared to the visitors' one, further illustrates their ability to stifle danger before it reached the goalkeeper.
Elvis Patta was the standout performer on the pitch, earning a match rating of 8.2. He assisted the second goal and was a constant factor in Libertad's attacking work. Bryan Caicedo, Cristhian Valencia and Hancel Batalla all received ratings of 7.3, with Batalla's goal securing the points. Rodrigo Morinigo and Jackson Rodríguez contributed with ratings of 7.2, forming a solid spine for the home side. The only players named were from the home team, with Tecnico Universitario's Edwin Mesa receiving a yellow card in the 34th minute for a first-half caution.
The goalkeeping statistics emphasise the defensive solidity of the home side. The Tecnico Universitario goalkeeper made only one save, while the Libertad goalkeeper made three, which proved vital in keeping a clean sheet given the visitors' three shots on target. The foul count was almost even at 13-14 in favour of the visitors, with yellow cards distributed two to Libertad and one to Tecnico Universitario. Both teams made five substitutions, but no names of the substitutes were provided in the data.
With this victory, Libertad gained three points in the Liga Pro regular season, moving to 19 matches played. The win represented a significant overperformance against the Lemeister model's pre-match projection, which had favoured a draw over a home victory or an away win, both of which were given equal 34 per cent probabilities. For Tecnico Universitario, the defeat leaves them to reflect on a performance that, despite a slight edge in passing accuracy, lacked the incision required to break down a well-organized Libertad defence.
