Where the market is wrong on Chertanovo U20 v Zenit U19
Chertanovo U20 meet Zenit U19 in the Youth Championship regular season - 16. The model makes Zenit U19 the most likely outcome at 57%, with the full read 20% CHE, 24% draw, 57% ZEN.
Zenit U19 rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1466. Recent form leans Zenit U19, 75% against 45%. Attacking output favors Zenit U19 on expected goals, 2.7 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 88%. Draw no bet leans Zenit U19 at 74%; double chance reads Chertanovo U20 or draw 43%, Zenit U19 or draw 80%.
Chertanovo U20 arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Zenit U19, D 2-2 @ Rostov U19, L 1-3 v Krasnodar U19, L 0-2 v Rodina Moscow U19.
Zenit U19 are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Chertanovo U20, W 2-1 @ Fakel U19, L 0-1 @ CSKA Moskva U19, W 5-1 v Dinamo Moskva U19.
The market prices CHE at 11% implied. Our number sits apart on Chertanovo U20: a 9.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output