York United v Forge

York United meet Forge in the Canadian Premier League group stage at York Lions Stadium, undefined. The model makes Forge the most likely outcome at 52%, with the full read 21% YOR, 27% draw, 52% FOR.

Forge rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1698 to 1443. Recent form leans Forge, 76% against 43%. Attacking output favors Forge on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Forge at 72%; double chance reads York United or draw 48%, Forge or draw 79%.

York United arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 4 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Forge, D 1-1 @ Atlético Ottawa, L 0-4 @ Vancouver FC, L 1-5 v Cavalry FC.

Forge are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ York United, W 2-1 v Saint-Laurent, D 1-1 @ Saint-Laurent, W 2-1 @ Supra du Quebec.

Forge hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: York United 1-3 Forge.

The market prices YOR at 19% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.