Where the market is wrong on Neftchi v Sogdiana
Neftchi meet Sogdiana in the Super League regular season - 19 at Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana.
Neftchi rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1466. Recent form leans Neftchi, 78% against 43%. Attacking output favors Neftchi on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans Neftchi at 76%; double chance reads Neftchi or draw 82%, Sogdiana or draw 42%.
Neftchi arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Sogdiana, L 1-4 @ Buxoro, W 3-0 @ Andijan, W 5-0 v Qizilqum.
Sogdiana are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Neftchi, W 2-1 v Qizilqum, W 3-1 @ Surkhon, W 1-0 v Andijan.
Neftchi hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Neftchi 3-0 Sogdiana.
The market prices NEF at 68% implied. Our number sits apart on Sogdiana: a 5.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
