Mafra v Academica: the model read
Mafra meet Academica in the Liga 3 promotion group - 13 at Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra. The model makes Academica the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 32% MAF, 31% draw, 38% ACA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1565, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 58%. Attacking output favors Academica on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Academica at 54%; double chance reads Mafra or draw 62%, Academica or draw 68%.
Mafra arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Alverca, L 2-3 @ FC Fredericia, W 2-0 @ Esbjerg, L 1-3 @ CF Os Belenenses.
Academica are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Tondela, L 0-2 @ Guimaraes, L 0-5 @ Torreense, W 1-0 @ Maritimo.
Mafra hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mafra 3-3 Academica.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
