Ventura County v The Town

Ventura County meet The Town in the MLS Next Pro group stage at Dignity Health Sports Park, undefined. The model makes The Town the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 31% VEN, 28% draw, 41% THE.

The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors The Town on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.7 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 73%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans The Town at 57%; double chance reads Ventura County or draw 59%, The Town or draw 69%.

Ventura County arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Los Angeles FC II, L 2-3 @ Vancouver Whitecaps II, W 3-1 v Real Monarchs, D 1-1 v Colorado Rapids II.

The Town are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v North Texas, L 0-1 v Tacoma Defiance, W 6-1 v Sporting KC II, W 3-2 @ Portland Timbers II.

The Town hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ventura County 1-3 The Town.

The market prices VEN at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.