St. Louis City II v Portland Timbers II

St. Louis City II meet Portland Timbers II in the MLS Next Pro group stage at CITYPARK, undefined. The model makes Portland Timbers II the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 31% ST., 29% draw, 40% POR.

Portland Timbers II rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1489. Recent form leans Portland Timbers II, 68% against 48%. Attacking output favors St. Louis City II on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 63%. Draw no bet leans Portland Timbers II at 56%; double chance reads St. Louis City II or draw 60%, Portland Timbers II or draw 69%.

St. Louis City II arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 4 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Portland Timbers II, L 1-2 @ Houston Dynamo FC II, L 0-3 @ North Texas, L 0-2 v Austin II.

Portland Timbers II are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ St. Louis City II, D 0-0 @ Los Angeles FC II, W 2-0 @ Tacoma Defiance, L 2-3 v The Town.

St. Louis City II hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: St. Louis City II 1-2 Portland Timbers II.

The market prices ST. at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Portland Timbers II: a 9.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 75 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.