Where the market is wrong on Åstorp v Kongahälla
Åstorp meet Kongahälla in the Division 2 - Västra Götaland västra götaland - 18.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 33%. Attacking output favors Åstorp on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Åstorp at 51%; double chance reads Åstorp or draw 66%, Kongahälla or draw 64%.
Åstorp arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Kongahälla, W 1-0 @ Böljan, L 0-2 v Lindome, L 1-2 @ Hestrafor.
Kongahälla are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Åstorp, W 4-0 v Västra Frölunda, L 1-4 @ Dalstorps, D 0-0 v Onsala.
Åstorp hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Åstorp 2-0 Kongahälla.
The market prices ÅST at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on Kongahälla: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
