Where the market is wrong on Stocksund v Arlanda
Stocksund meet Arlanda in the Ettan - Norra norra - 19 at Danderyd IP, Stocksund.
Arlanda rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1400. Recent form leans Arlanda, 65% against 25%. Attacking output favors Arlanda on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.9 per match.
Stocksund arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 10 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Arlanda, L 3-4 @ Vasalund, L 0-2 @ Karlberg, W 5-0 v Gefle IF.
Arlanda are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Stocksund, W 5-1 v FBK Karlstad, L 1-2 v Ostersunds FK, L 1-4 @ Stockholm Internazionale.
Arlanda hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Stocksund 2-3 Arlanda.
The market prices STO at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Arlanda: a 8.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 76 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
