Where the market is wrong on PK-35 v Haka
PK-35 meet Haka in the Ykkösliiga group stage at Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki. The model makes PK-35 the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% PK-, 30% draw, 31% HAK.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 70% against 65%. Attacking output favors Haka on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans PK-35 at 56%; double chance reads PK-35 or draw 69%, Haka or draw 61%.
PK-35 arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v JIPPO, W 1-0 @ Kooteepee, W 3-1 v KäPa, W 3-0 @ EIF.
Haka are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v KäPa, D 2-2 @ Klubi-04, W 3-1 v EIF, L 1-2 @ MP.
Their last 3 meetings are tight — 3 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: PK-35 0-0 Haka.
The market prices PK- at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on PK-35: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
