Where the market is wrong on Puerto Nuevo v Defensores de Cambaceres
Puerto Nuevo meet Defensores de Cambaceres in the Primera C regular season - 25.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Puerto Nuevo, 55% against 39%. Attacking output favors Puerto Nuevo on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 20%, over 2.5 goals around 13%. Draw no bet leans Puerto Nuevo at 56%; double chance reads Puerto Nuevo or draw 72%, Defensores de Cambaceres or draw 64%.
Puerto Nuevo arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Defensores de Cambaceres, D 2-2 v Yupanqui, D 1-1 @ Juventud Unida, W 1-0 v Sacachispas.
Defensores de Cambaceres are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Puerto Nuevo, L 0-2 @ Leones de Rosario, W 2-0 v Leandro N. Alem, L 1-2 v Lugano.
Defensores de Cambaceres hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Puerto Nuevo 0-2 Defensores de Cambaceres.
The market prices PUE at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
