Atlanta v Almagro

Atlanta meet Almagro in the Primera Nacional regular season - 22. The model makes Atlanta the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% ATL, 34% draw, 26% ALM.

The baseline ratings are close, 1589 to 1480, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Atlanta, 61% against 45%. Attacking output favors Atlanta on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans Atlanta at 61%; double chance reads Atlanta or draw 74%, Almagro or draw 60%.

Atlanta arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Colegiales, L 1-2 @ Quilmes, L 0-2 @ Almagro, W 2-1 @ Midland.

Almagro are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ San Martin Tucuman, W 1-0 v Atletico DE Rafaela, W 2-0 v Atlanta, W 2-1 v Agropecuario.

Atlanta hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Almagro 2-0 Atlanta.

The market prices ATL at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Almagro: a 11.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.