Where the market is wrong on Orebro SK v Varbergs BoIS FC
Orebro SK meet Varbergs BoIS FC in the Superettan regular season - 20 at Behrn Arena, Orebro.
Varbergs BoIS FC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1431. Recent form leans Varbergs BoIS FC, 68% against 40%. Attacking output favors Varbergs BoIS FC on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Varbergs BoIS FC at 67%; double chance reads Orebro SK or draw 51%, Varbergs BoIS FC or draw 76%.
Orebro SK arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Varbergs BoIS FC, W 4-1 @ Sollentuna, D 3-3 @ IK brage, L 1-3 @ Norrby IF.
Varbergs BoIS FC are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Orebro SK, W 5-0 @ Böljan, D 0-0 @ United Nordic, L 0-1 v Sandviken.
The market prices ORE at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Varbergs BoIS FC: a 9.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output