Where the market is wrong on Pittsburgh Riverhounds v FC Tulsa
Pittsburgh Riverhounds meet FC Tulsa in the USL Championship group stage at Highmark Stadium, undefined. The model makes Pittsburgh Riverhounds the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% PIT, 32% draw, 30% FC .
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 57%. Attacking output favors FC Tulsa on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 37%. Draw no bet leans Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 56%; double chance reads Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw 70%, FC Tulsa or draw 62%.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Rhode Island, W 3-1 v Louisville City, L 1-2 @ Sporting JAX, W 2-0 v Loudoun United.
FC Tulsa are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Lexington, W 1-0 v El Paso Locomotive, L 1-3 @ Birmingham Legion, L 1-2 v Colorado Springs.
The market prices PIT at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Tulsa: a 5.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
