Where the market is wrong on El Paso Locomotive v Sporting JAX
El Paso Locomotive meet Sporting JAX in the USL Championship group stage at Southwest University Park, undefined. The model makes El Paso Locomotive the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 47% EL , 27% draw, 26% SPO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans El Paso Locomotive, 48% against 23%. Attacking output favors El Paso Locomotive on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 66%, over 2.5 goals around 76%. Draw no bet leans El Paso Locomotive at 64%; double chance reads El Paso Locomotive or draw 74%, Sporting JAX or draw 53%.
El Paso Locomotive arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Sporting JAX, L 0-1 @ FC Tulsa, L 0-2 v New Mexico United, W 2-1 @ Las Vegas Lights.
Sporting JAX are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ El Paso Locomotive, D 2-2 v Brooklyn, W 2-1 v Pittsburgh Riverhounds, L 0-4 @ Austin.
El Paso Locomotive hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: El Paso Locomotive 2-0 Sporting JAX.
The market prices EL at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on Sporting JAX: a 10.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
