Where the market is wrong on Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento Junin
Union Santa Fe meet Sarmiento Junin in the Liga Profesional Argentina clausura - 7 at Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 48%. Attacking output favors Union Santa Fe on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 57%. Draw no bet leans Union Santa Fe at 53%; double chance reads Union Santa Fe or draw 67%, Sarmiento Junin or draw 63%.
Union Santa Fe arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Sarmiento Junin, W 3-1 @ Aldosivi, L 0-1 @ San Lorenzo, L 1-2 v Central Cordoba de Santiago.
Sarmiento Junin are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Union Santa Fe, W 2-0 v Estudiantes L.P., W 2-0 v Huracan, W 2-1 @ Atletico Tucuman.
The market prices UNI at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Sarmiento Junin: a 10.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
