Coritiba v Corinthians: the model read
Coritiba meet Corinthians in the Serie A regular season - 24 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1553, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Corinthians, 58% against 48%. Attacking output favors Corinthians on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans Corinthians at 56%; double chance reads Coritiba or draw 62%, Corinthians or draw 70%.
Coritiba arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Corinthians, D 1-1 @ Sao Paulo, W 2-1 v Chapecoense-sc, L 0-1 v Cruzeiro.
Corinthians are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Coritiba, W 1-0 v Rosario Central, L 1-2 v Cruzeiro, D 0-0 @ Rosario Central.
Corinthians hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Coritiba 2-1 Corinthians.
The market prices COR at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on Corinthians: a 1.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
