Where the market is wrong on Toronto FC v Nashville SC
Toronto FC meet Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer regular season - 24 at BMO Field, Toronto.
Nashville SC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1443. Recent form leans Nashville SC, 68% against 45%. Attacking output favors Nashville SC on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Toronto FC arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v New York City FC, W 2-1 @ Inter Miami, D 3-3 v Charlotte, W 2-1 v New England Revolution.
Nashville SC are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 13 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v FC Cincinnati, W 3-2 v Columbus Crew, W 1-0 @ New York Red Bulls, W 4-1 v Inter Miami.
Nashville SC hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Nashville SC 1-0 Toronto FC.
The market prices TOR at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on Nashville SC: a 6.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 70 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
