New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union: the model read
New York Red Bulls meet Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer regular season - 22 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Philadelphia Union, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Philadelphia Union on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.
New York Red Bulls arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Philadelphia Union, D 1-1 v Chicago Fire, L 0-1 v Nashville SC, L 1-2 @ Atlanta United FC.
Philadelphia Union are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ New York Red Bulls, D 1-1 @ Austin, D 2-2 v Inter Miami, W 3-2 @ New York City FC.
Philadelphia Union hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union.
The market prices NEW at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 2.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
