Ceramica Cleopatra finished third in the Super Cup after a 2-1 victory over Pyramids FC at Al Nahyan Stadium, a result that defied the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model. The model had installed Pyramids FC as strong favourites with a 44 per cent win probability, while Ceramica Cleopatra were given just a 26 per cent chance. Two penalties from A. Belhadji proved decisive in a contest that, on the basis of the available statistics, was far closer than the outright result might suggest.
A. Belhadji opened the scoring in the 33rd minute from the penalty spot, giving Ceramica Cleopatra the lead after a goalless opening half-hour. The match had been tight and cagey to that point, with neither side able to carve out a clear advantage. Pyramids FC responded before the interval, equalising in the 44th minute through M. Ziko, who was assisted by M. Hamdi. That goal, a well-worked move from open play, restored parity and ensured the teams went into the break level at 1-1.
The second half began with immediate drama. Just four minutes after the restart, A. Belhadji stepped up for his second penalty of the match and again found the net, putting Ceramica Cleopatra 2-1 ahead. That goal proved to be the winner. Neither side could add to the scoreline in the remaining 41 minutes, despite both teams making five substitutions in an attempt to influence proceedings. There were no cards issued during the match, suggesting a disciplined contest from both sets of players.
Without detailed possession, shot, pass or expected goals data, the analytical picture must be built around the efficiency of A. Belhadji from the penalty spot and the broader context of a match that featured only three goals, all concentrated in a 16-minute period either side of half-time. The two penalties award were the decisive moments, but the fact that Ceramica Cleopatra did not score from open play and Pyramids FC only managed one goal despite their status as pre-match favourites tells an important story. Ceramica Cleopatra were clinical from 12 yards, while Pyramids FC, who were given a projected 1-0 victory by the Lemeister model, could not find a second equaliser.
The standout individual was undoubtedly A. Belhadji, whose composure from the penalty spot decided the match. Scoring two penalties in a tight, low-scoring fixture is a rare and valuable contribution, and he was the clear difference between the sides on a night when goals were at a premium. For Pyramids FC, M. Ziko and M. Hamdi combined for the equaliser, demonstrating their ability to break the opposition down in open play, but that was the only time they managed to find the net. Without any further goalscorers or assist providers named in the data, the supporting casts, while necessarily involved throughout, did not produce the decisive moments that would have changed the outcome.
The result means Ceramica Cleopatra claim third place in the Super Cup, a commendable achievement given that the Lemeister model gave them only a 26 per cent chance of victory and projected a 0-0 draw at full time. Pyramids FC, who entered the match as the clear favourites with a 44 per cent win probability and a projected 1-0 victory, will be left to rue the two penalties that cost them a place on the podium. The match was ultimately decided by fine margins from 12 yards, and that proved enough for Ceramica Cleopatra to secure the bronze medal.
