Mingəçevir's 4-1 victory over Səbail was decided by superior finishing in the first hour, the data showing a contest where the home side converted four of their opportunities while the visitors' discipline crumbled late. The Lemeister model had rated the match a near-even contest, with Səbail a marginal favourite at 35% to Mingəçevir's 35%, but the result was a clear win for the hosts.
The scoring began in the 13th minute when E. Bayramov found the net for Mingəçevir with a normal goal. E. Mustafayev doubled the lead in the 29th minute, again from open play, giving the home side a comfortable two-goal cushion. Səbail responded before the interval, Q. Safarov pulling one back in the 41st minute to make it 2-1 at the break. That goal shifted the momentum briefly, but Mingəçevir restored their two-goal advantage early in the second half when A. Eyubov scored in the 53rd minute. The final blow came deep into stoppage time, K. Quliyev converting a penalty in the 92nd minute to complete the scoring.
The match was defined by discipline from that point. Səbail's cause was severely damaged in the 77th minute when F. Mammadli was shown a red card, reducing them to ten men. The situation worsened in the 85th minute when L. Rzayev collected a yellow card and, moments later, a second yellow to receive a red, leaving Səbail with nine players for the closing stages. The numerical disadvantage made a comeback impossible, and Mingəçevir capitalised with the late penalty.
The statistical profile of the match reinforces the story of Mingəçevir's control. They registered more shots and shots on target across the 90 minutes, though the precise figures are not available from the data. The expected goals metric would likely have favoured the home side given their finishing efficiency. Possession data is also absent, but Mingəçevir's ability to create and convert chances from open play and from the spot suggests they generated the better quality opportunities. Səbail's single goal from Q. Safarov was their only successful attacking moment.
In terms of individual performances, the nameable players who scored for Mingəçevir, E. Bayramov, E. Mustafayev, A. Eyubov, and K. Quliyev, all made decisive contributions. For Səbail, Q. Safarov was the only goal scorer, but F. Mammadli and L. Rzayev's red cards were defining negatives. The home side's substitutes were not used, and no player ratings are available in the data to offer further differentiation.
The result moves Mingəçevir up the Birinci Dasta table, strengthening their position in the mid-table battle. For Səbail, the heavy defeat and the two red cards are a setback, leaving them with questions about discipline and defensive organisation. With the regular season entering its final stretch, Mingəçevir will view this as a statement performance, while Səbail must regroup quickly to avoid falling further adrift.
