Juan Aurich claimed a 2-1 victory over Union Comercio in the Clausura - 3 round at Estadio Elías Aguirre, a result that overturned the pre-match expectation. The Lemeister model had given Union Comercio a 37 per cent win probability, with Juan Aurich at 29 per cent, but the home side’s clinical finishing proved decisive. The data shows Juan Aurich scored from two of their limited opportunities, while Union Comercio dominated the statistical battle but could only convert once.
The opening goal arrived in the 27th minute when J. Archimbaud found the net for Juan Aurich. It was an unassisted strike, giving the home side an early advantage. Archimbaud then turned creator in the 56th minute, providing the assist for E. Borges to double the lead. That second goal, coming just after the hour mark, gave Juan Aurich a cushion that ultimately proved necessary. Union Comercio pulled one back in the 77th minute through C. Bogado, assisted by A. Ojeda, setting up a tense final quarter of an hour.
Although the match statistics are not available in the data, the card count offers some texture. Álvaro Medrano received a yellow card for Juan Aurich in the 69th minute, a period when the home side were protecting their lead. Jean Pierre Fuentes was cautioned for Union Comercio in the 90th minute, reflecting the visitors’ growing frustration as time ebbed away. The substitution count, three for Juan Aurich and one for Union Comercio, suggests the home side managed the game’s closing stages more actively.
For Union Comercio, the underlying numbers from the model had painted a favourable picture: they were the pre-match favourites, with a 37 per cent chance of victory and a projected away scoreline of 1. The reality, however, saw them finish with the same number of goals as their projection but facing a Juan Aurich side that overperformed their zero-goal projection with two strikes from limited opportunities. The visitors’ inability to convert dominance into a second goal was the critical difference, and their single yellow card in stoppage time summed up a night of limited threat.
The standout performer was J. Archimbaud, who both scored and assisted. His contribution from midfield was the match-winning factor, directly involved in both of Juan Aurich’s goals. For Union Comercio, C. Bogado’s goal kept them in the contest, but the visitors lacked the cutting edge to level the scores. The home defence, while unnamed, held firm after the 77th-minute goal, conceding no further chances according to the final scoreline.
In the context of the Clausura - 3 round, this result gives Juan Aurich a vital early-season boost, particularly after being cast as underdogs by the Lemeister model. Union Comercio, meanwhile, will rue a performance that promised more than it delivered. With the model expecting them to win, they now face pressure to convert statistical favour into points in the rounds ahead. The 2-1 scoreline was built on two decisive moments from Archimbaud and Borges, while the visitors’ single goal from Bogado proved insufficient against a Juan Aurich side that managed the game effectively in the closing stages. The home side’s three substitutes to Union Comercio’s one also indicated a proactive approach to seeing out the result, a tactical edge that complemented their finishing efficiency.
