Santa Catarina secured a commanding 3-0 victory over Chapecoense-sc at Arena Condá in the Copa Santa Catarina, a result that validated the Lemeister model's pre-match assessment. The model had installed the visitors as narrow favourites with a 41 per cent win probability, though its projection of a single-goal away win undersold the margin of control Santa Catarina exerted. The absence of detailed match statistics in the available data limits a granular breakdown of the contest, but the scoreline and the timing of the goals point to a clinical, efficient performance from the away side.
The scoring was opened in the 39th minute by Renan Nunes, who converted a normal goal without an assist. The strike, coming late in the first half, was a pivotal moment. It allowed Santa Catarina to carry a lead into the interval, altering the tactical complexion of the match. Chapecoense, having kept the visitors at bay for nearly 40 minutes, were forced to adjust their approach after the break, chasing the game on home soil.
Santa Catarina doubled their advantage nine minutes into the second half. Bruninho scored in the 54th minute, another unassisted normal goal, compounding the difficulties for the Chapecoense defence. The quick concession after the restart would have disrupted any planned adjustments from the home side, putting them two goals behind with over half an hour remaining. The third and final goal arrived in the 80th minute, with Bruno Negueba adding his name to the scoresheet with another unassisted normal finish. By this stage, the contest was effectively over, and Santa Catarina managed the closing stages without incident.
With no statistics for possession, shots, expected goals, passing accuracy, or corners recorded, the analysis must centre on the goal sequence and the competitive context. The clean sheet suggests that Chapecoense struggled to create high-quality chances, while Santa Catarina converted three of their opportunities at a 100 per cent conversion rate from the limited data available. The absence of cards and substitutions indicates a disciplined, straightforward contest with minimal tactical disruption. The three goals were scored by different players, none of whom were credited with an assist, pointing to individual execution rather than constructed team moves.
The match also carried no disciplinary or substitution events, reinforcing the impression of a controlled away performance. Without player ratings, the standout contributors are defined by their goals: Renan Nunes for the crucial opener, Bruninho for the second-half cushion, and Bruno Negueba for the late seal. Their efficiency in front of goal proved decisive.
In the context of the Copa Santa Catarina group stage, this result gives Santa Catarina a strong position. Three points away from home, combined with a clean sheet, provide valuable momentum and a firm foothold in Group Stage 4. For Chapecoense-sc, the defeat at home leaves them needing to recover quickly in the remaining fixtures, as the margin of loss and the lack of goals raise questions about their attacking threat and defensive solidity. The Lemeister model's pre-match read, which gave Santa Catarina a 41 per cent chance of victory, accurately identified the away side as the more likely winner, even if the final score surpassed the projected single-goal margin. Santa Catarina executed their game plan with precision, securing a result that reflects their status as slight favourites in the tie.
