IranTajikistan v Iran: the model read
Tajikistan meet Iran in the CAFA Nations Cup group stage - 3 at Hisor Central Stadium, Hisor. The model makes Iran the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% TAJ, 31% draw, 37% IRA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1577 to 1547, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 61% against 58%. Attacking output favors Tajikistan on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Iran at 54%; double chance reads Tajikistan or draw 63%, Iran or draw 68%.
Tajikistan arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 13 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v India, W 3-1 v India, D 1-1 v Philippines, W 5-0 @ Timor-Leste.
Iran are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Egypt, D 0-0 @ Belgium, D 2-2 v New Zealand, W 2-0 v Mali.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2025: Tajikistan 2-2 Iran.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
