Maua v ECUS: the model read
Maua meet ECUS in the Paulista Série B semi-finals at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti, Mauá, São Paulo. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 31% MAU, 35% draw, 33% ECU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 53%. Attacking output favors Maua on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 25%, over 2.5 goals around 16%. Draw no bet leans ECUS at 52%; double chance reads Maua or draw 67%, ECUS or draw 69%.
Maua arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Uniao Mogi, W 3-2 @ Uniao Mogi, W 6-0 v Barcelona EC, L 1-5 @ Itaquá Athletico Clube.
ECUS are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 0 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Joseense, W 2-0 v EC Lemense, D 0-0 @ Nacional SP, W 2-0 v AEA.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: ECUS 1-1 Maua.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output