Tepatitlán v CA La Paz: the model read
Tepatitlán meet CA La Paz in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 14 at Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez, Tepatitlán de Morelos. The model makes Tepatitlán the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% TEP, 32% draw, 31% CA .
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 53%. Attacking output favors CA La Paz on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Tepatitlán at 55%; double chance reads Tepatitlán or draw 69%, CA La Paz or draw 63%.
Tepatitlán arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Durango, L 0-2 @ CDS Tampico Madero, W 3-1 v CDS Tampico Madero, W 1-0 v CDS Tampico Madero.
CA La Paz are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ FC Juarez, L 1-2 v CDS Tampico Madero, L 0-2 @ CDS Tampico Madero, D 1-1 @ Atlante FC.
Tepatitlán hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: CA La Paz 1-1 Tepatitlán.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
