Spain W defeated Germany W 1-0 in extra time in the UEFA Championship semi-final in Zurich, a result that was ultimately decided by the visitors' overwhelming dominance of possession and their ability to sustain pressure until a late breakthrough. The Lemeister model had correctly identified Spain W as the favourite, giving them a 43% win probability compared to Germany W's 28%, and the final scoreline reflected that advantage, albeit in a contest that remained goalless for 113 minutes.
The solitary goal arrived in the 113th minute, scored by Aitana Bonmatí and assisted by Athenea del Castillo. It was a normal goal and represented the culmination of Spain W's persistent attacking efforts. They registered 22 total shots to Germany W's 15, and nine of those were on target compared to four for their opponents. This pressure was concentrated in the penalty area, with Spain W taking 18 shots inside the box, while Germany W managed nine from similar range.
The statistics paint a clear picture of Spain W's control. They completed 720 passes with an accuracy of 87%, more than double Germany W's 351 successful passes at 72%. This 67% to 33% disparity in ball possession was the foundation of their attacking threat. Despite this control, they required eight saves from Germany W goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger to be denied, a performance that earned her a match rating of 8.5, the joint highest alongside Patricia Guijarro. Berger's efforts kept the scoreline level into stoppage time.
Germany W, for their part, were not without threat. They produced four shots on target of their own, forcing Spain W goalkeeper Catalina Coll into four saves, a performance that earned her a rating of 7.9. Their 15 total shots included six from outside the box, suggesting they struggled to work clear opportunities inside the area as effectively as their opponents. The physicality of the contest was evident in the foul count, with Germany W committing 14 and Spain W 20, and the yellow card count of one for Germany W, shown to Sara Däbritz in the 17th minute, and three for Spain W, awarded to Esther González, Patricia Guijarro and Salma Paralluelo.
Patricia Guijarro excelled in midfield, her rating of 8.5 reflecting her influence on the game's rhythm. Aitana Bonmatí, the match-winner, was rated 8.3, while Irene Paredes earned an 8 for her defensive work. Ona Batlle also contributed solidly, posting a 7.9 rating. The substitutes, three for Spain W and four for Germany W, could not alter the fundamental discrepancy in control and chance creation.
The result means Spain W advance to the final of the UEFA Championship, a game they did not need to play their best football to win but one they controlled decisively through their passing network. Germany W, despite their defensive resilience and Berger's heroics, could not convert their sporadic counter-attacking efforts into a goal. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a 2-1 away win was close in outcome but undersold the defensive stubbornness of Germany W, who pushed the contest into extra time before succumbing to the sustained pressure that the data had always suggested was coming.
