Chaves edged Oliveirense 2-1 in the Segunda Liga's 31st round at the Estadio Municipal de Chaves, a result that aligned broadly with the Lemeister model's projection of a home win. The model had given Chaves a 42 per cent chance of victory, and while the final margin was narrower than the model's projected 1-0, the hosts' greater volume of chances told the story. Chaves registered 20 total shots to Oliveirense's 15, putting nine on target against six, and their 55 per cent possession was underpinned by a superior passing accuracy of 86 per cent from 452 passes, compared to the visitors' 81 per cent from 371.
The match remained goalless at the break despite the statistical imbalance. Chaves had already generated the bulk of their eventual shot count in the first half, including five blocked attempts, but the Oliveirense goalkeeper made several saves to keep the score level. The home side's attacking pressure was evident in their 16 shots from inside the box across the match, a figure that reflected their willingness to test the visitors' defence in dangerous areas. The breakthrough arrived two minutes into the second half when D. Kusso scored a normal goal in the 47th minute, giving Chaves a lead their first-half pressure had warranted.
Oliveirense responded effectively and equalised in the 63rd minute through A. Lopes, also a normal goal. The visitors had been competitive in the shot statistics, with 15 total attempts and six on target, and their equaliser came during a spell when they had forced a number of saves from the home goalkeeper, who finished with five saves overall. Oliveirense's three offsides suggested they were attempting to breach the Chaves defensive line frequently, while their six corners to Chaves' five hinted at set-piece threat that was ultimately not enough to earn a point.
The decisive moment arrived in the 88th minute when R. Esajas scored a normal goal to restore Chaves' lead. The late strike was the culmination of Chaves' persistent pressure, particularly from open play where they had 16 shots from inside the box to Oliveirense's 12. Discipline was a minor factor; Chaves collected two yellow cards through Pedro Pinho and Robyn Esajas, while Oliveirense's Joao Silva was also cautioned. Both sides made the full allocation of five substitutions, indicating a match where tactical changes were deployed to influence the outcome.
The highest rated player was the Oliveirense goalkeeper Ricardo Ribeiro, who earned a 7.7 rating despite being on the losing side, reflecting his six saves that kept his team in the contest. Teammate Bura also posted a 7.7 rating, suggesting a strong individual performance from the Oliveirense defence. For Chaves, Ktatau and Andre Rodrigues both recorded 7.6, indicating that the home side's attacking efforts were well-supported by key contributors in midfield and attack. Armando Lopes and Lucas Henrique of Oliveirense each scored 7.6, highlighting a competitive individual contest where ratings were closely matched between the two teams.
The win keeps Chaves in the hunt for a strong finish to the regular season, with three rounds remaining in the Segunda Liga campaign. Their expected goals advantage, derived from 20 total shots and 16 from inside the box, suggests that the result was statistically justified even if the margin was narrow. Oliveirense will rue a defensive lapse late in the match after having earned a credible equaliser, but their 15 shots and five saves from their goalkeeper indicate they were competitive throughout. The three points strengthen Chaves' position in the table, while the visitors remain in a mid-table battle with limited margin for error in the run-in.
