Arouca v Guimaraes: the model read
Arouca meet Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga regular season - 21 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca. The model makes Guimaraes the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 33% ARO, 30% draw, 38% GUI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1541, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 53%. Attacking output favors Guimaraes on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Guimaraes at 53%; double chance reads Arouca or draw 62%, Guimaraes or draw 67%.
Arouca arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Santa Clara, D 0-0 @ Famalicao, D 0-0 @ Feirense, L 1-2 @ Rio Ave.
Guimaraes are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 13 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Al-Ahli Jeddah, W 2-0 v Academica, W 5-0 v Penafiel, W 3-1 v Felgueiras 1932.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Arouca 3-2 Guimaraes.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
