Mauaense v Independente SP: the model read
Mauaense meet Independente SP in the Paulista Série B 2nd phase - 6 at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti, Mauá, São Paulo. The model makes Independente SP the most likely outcome at 52%, with the full read 21% MAU, 28% draw, 52% IND.
Independente SP rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1719 to 1489. Recent form leans Independente SP, 78% against 50%. Attacking output favors Independente SP on expected goals, 2.7 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 57%. Draw no bet leans Independente SP at 72%; double chance reads Mauaense or draw 48%, Independente SP or draw 79%.
Mauaense arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Manthiqueira, L 0-1 v Uniao Mogi, W 2-0 @ Barcelona EC, D 1-1 @ Maua.
Independente SP are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 24 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Sporting Paulinense, W 1-0 @ Sporting Paulinense, W 2-0 v Tupa, W 2-0 @ Tupa.
Independente SP hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Mauaense 1-3 Independente SP.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output