Rot-Weiß Essen claimed a 3-2 victory at the Donaustadion, a result that the data shows was decided by a ruthlessly efficient first-half performance and a late winner that punished a numerically depleted home side. The Lemeister model had favoured the visitors at 45 per cent, and the final score matched its projection of 3-2, though the path was far from straightforward.
The match began with a rapid blow for the home side. After just two minutes, T. Musel put Rot-Weiß Essen ahead, assisted by J. Cuber Potocnik. SSV Ulm 1846 responded strongly in terms of territory and pressure, earning a penalty in the 28th minute. L. Roser converted from the spot to level the scores, and the home side then took the lead through D. Chessa seven minutes later. That advantage lasted only five minutes, as T. Musel struck again in the 40th minute, restoring parity before the interval. The first half alone produced four goals, but the statistical foundation for the result was already being laid. SSV Ulm 1846 held 55 per cent possession overall and completed 82 per cent of their passes, compared to 79 per cent for Rot-Weiß Essen, yet the visitors were the more incisive team in the final third.
The second half saw SSV Ulm 1846 push for a winner, but they were unable to convert their territorial dominance into clear chances. The home side recorded twelve shots to Rot-Weiß Essen's ten, but a higher proportion of the visitors' efforts were on target, reflecting superior shot selection. The expected goals figures underline the gap in quality: SSV Ulm 1846 generated an xG of 1.41, which translated into two first-half goals, while Rot-Weiß Essen's xG was notably higher, reflecting the quality of the opportunities they created. The match swung decisively in the 90th minute when B. Huning scored the decisive goal, securing all three points and completing a comeback that had been building since the interval.
Discipline was a significant factor in the outcome. SSV Ulm 1846 collected four yellow cards and one red, with Lukas Mazagg receiving a second yellow in the 71st minute and subsequent dismissal, leaving his side a man down for the final quarter of the game. That numerical disadvantage tilted the balance of play irretrievably. Rot-Weiß Essen had only one booking, for Tobias Kraulich in the 52nd minute, and were able to keep eleven men on the pitch throughout. The home side's early bookings for Max Brandt in the 6th minute and Dennis Chessa in the 10th minute set a cautious tone that limited their aggression in challenges thereafter.
Individually, T. Musel's double earned him the highest match rating of 8.2, underlining his decisive contribution in the opening period and his ability to find space in a congested box. B. Huning, the late match-winner, received a 7.9, reflecting the composure of his finish under pressure. D. Chessa's goal for SSV Ulm 1846 was reflected in a 7.6 rating, while L. Roser's penalty conversion earned him a 7.4. At the other end, the home side's defensive struggles were evident in Lukas Mazagg's 5.9 rating, with his two yellow cards compounding an already difficult afternoon. Max Brandt and Dennis Chessa also received early bookings, contributing to a fractious tone that ultimately undermined the home side's game plan.
The result leaves SSV Ulm 1846 to reflect on a season that ended with a home defeat, while Rot-Weiß Essen finish on a high having taken all three points from a ground where points are rarely gifted. For the visitors, this victory was built on efficiency: they needed only ten shots to score three goals, while the home side required twelve attempts for their two, and the expected goals differential suggests the scoreline was a fair reflection of the balance of quality chances. The Lemeister model's pre-match read of a narrow away win proved accurate, though the circumstances made it harder than the scoreline might suggest, particularly given the home side's early ascendancy after their equaliser and the discipline issues that ultimately decided the contest.
