SV Wehen Wiesbaden twice led by two goals at the BRITA-Arena but were pegged back by Waldhof Mannheim in a 3-3 draw that the data shows was far more even than the early scoreline suggested. The Lemeister model had favoured the home side with a 39% win probability and had projected a 2-1 home victory, but the final result was a fair reflection of the visitors' second-half dominance in the shot count and expected goals. Wehen's efficiency in the opening period masked underlying frailties that Mannheim exposed ruthlessly after the interval.
The home side produced a blistering start, scoring inside the first minute. R. Johansson opened the scoring from an assist by M. Flotho, giving Wehen an immediate lead that set the tone for a supremely efficient first half. Wehen doubled their advantage in the 38th minute when J. Gillekens finished from S. Mockenhaupt's assist, and they made it 3-0 just before the interval when M. Flotho converted a penalty in the 45th minute. That three-goal cushion, however, was built on exceptional finishing rather than sustained pressure. Their shot conversion rate was extraordinarily high, with three goals from what statistical models would typically consider a modest number of attempts relative to the scoreline.
The second half belonged entirely to Waldhof Mannheim, who transformed the contest through relentless pressure and superior volume of attacking play. They pulled one back in the 55th minute through S. Abifade, who found the net after an assist from D. Michel. Abifade struck again in the 68th minute, this time from V. Thill's pass, reducing the deficit to a single goal and shifting the momentum decisively. The equaliser arrived in the 83rd minute when T. Boyd converted an assist from J. Sietan, completing a comeback that had looked improbable at half-time. Mannheim's shot count and shots on target totals over the full match surpassed Wehen's, and their expected goals accumulation in the second half alone likely matched or exceeded the home side's first-half output.
Wehen's attacking threat was concentrated entirely in the opening 45 minutes. Their expected goals total for the match was lower than a three-goal haul would typically suggest, underscoring the finishing quality of Johansson, Gillekens and Flotho but also indicating that their lead was not built on a correspondingly high volume of chances. Mannheim, by contrast, generated more consistent pressure throughout the second half. Their passing statistics and territorial advantage grew as the game progressed, and they turned that dominance into three well-taken goals that reflected their control of the contest after the break.
Discipline was an issue for the hosts, who collected three yellow cards compared to Mannheim's one. Moritz Flotho was booked in the 56th minute, Fatih Kaya in the 72nd, and Jordy Gillekens in the 82nd. Kaya's caution arrived as the visitors were building momentum, and Gillekens's card came just before the equaliser, suggesting a side under pressure. Vincent Thill received Mannheim's only caution in the 64th minute. Both sides used five substitutes, but neither bench altered the trajectory of a game already defined by Wehen's fading control and Mannheim's rising pressure.
The result leaves both sides with mixed emotions in the context of the 3. Liga season. Wehen had a 3-0 lead and failed to hold it, a collapse that will concern them given the competition's tight margins and the importance of converting dominance into points. Mannheim, who according to the Lemeister model had only a 32% pre-match chance of winning, will take encouragement from their fightback and the volume of chances they created in the second half. In a league where three-goal leads are rarely squandered, this draw feels more like two points dropped for the home side and one gained for the visitors, with Mannheim's second-half performance suggesting they can compete with any side in the division when they sustain pressure.
